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Thursday, October 4, 2007

Natural Gas and Oil Prices Showing Unexpected Strength

Crude Oil

After 4 days of losses, crude roared back to move into positive territory. Backs were even stronger up $1.70+ in most terms. Products were also up sharply. There was not a lot of bullish news to prompt the move though the USD was marginally weaker. Rather, this appears more technical in nature: the market tested but held support just under $79.00 which has encouraged funds to jump back in for a move higher again.

Natural Gas

Today's 57 BCF injection was bullish vs. expectations that were largely around 65 BCF. Beyond that, the trend of injections has been supportive: since 2000 the average injection for the past six weeks has been 73 BCF, this year we have average 56 BCF. We remain near all time records but have been losing ground. Meanwhile, with the weekend looming and a (weak) storm in the Gulf some more strength may be in order. Liquefied Natural Gas imports have slowed to under 1 BCF per day. if this keeps up natural gas prices should continue to strengthen.

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