Using Oil & Gas Trusts to Beat Inflation

Using Oil & Gas Trusts to Beat Inflation

by Mike Stathis, Managing Principle, Apex Venture Advisors

According to Washington, the official inflation rate is around 4.1%. At this point, I think it’s obvious most consumers know this data is wrong. Of course some people accept anything Washington reports, especially the agenda-driven “experts” on television who bring in media hams as cheerleaders to spread the ludicrous propaganda of a strong economy.

You don’t need a Ph.D in economics or finance to know that inflation is approaching levels similar to those seen in the 1970s. In fact, those who have been formally trained in these disciplines are more likely to miss what is really going on because they’ve been programmed to think that fancy math is always superior to common sense. But they often neglect to consider the fact that new standards are continuously being devised to hide the real data - from inflation and unemployment numbers to GDP and poverty statistics.

Understand that most economists are in some way connected to the government. Economists in private industry often sit on Washington committees. Most academic economists too are pressured to accept government methods of data analysis without question, or else they risk losing federal grants, government consulting projects, or being appointed to sit on government committees.

Important Considerations

14% returns are much better than the market’s historical average of around 8%. So what’s the catch? Well, we obviously need to consider the risks before we make any decisions. In the end, you should understand your risk tolerance and investment horizon. After considering the risks, you will be able to determine a risk-reward profile for these investments. This is the general method to determine suitability for all investments. Let’s take a look at some of the more important variables to consider.

Oil Demand

Oil demand is obviously a very important consideration one must make. Some of the questions you might pose are:

Is demand growth accelerating?

What are the reasons for this acceleration and what are the risks for it to end?
What impact will alternative energy have on oil demand and when might a real effect be seen?

While America is the clear leader in annual oil consumption, China leads the world in oil growth demand. In other words, China is accelerating is demand for oil more so than any other nation. This is expected to continue for many years, with all of Asia on a similar course. Unlike America, where oil demand will always (until alternative and renewable energy sources are mature) be quite high due its extensive reach within the economy, China’s demand is primarily the result of its export trade commerce. As corporate America continues to enrich the living standards of China, we will soon see very strong Chinese consumers who, from auto ownership alone will create huge demands for oil. While it should be quite clear that America faces a continued weak economy for at least the next two to three years, it is unknown to what extent these effects will spill over to the rest of the globe. I would estimate that we will see a global recession. Thus, demand from China is likely to stall at some point. But going forward thereafter, you should expect China’s demand for fossil fuels to continue its long-term trajectory.

While there is certainly much noise over alternative energy, the fact is that it will take many years before it makes a dent in the global oil demand. And it will come gradually, allowing OPEC and non-OPEC producing nations to gradually adjust output and resources so that they are able to control demand-supply and thus pricing. Even when alternative energy becomes highly competitive with oil and other fossil fuels (which might not be before 2020), keep in mind that we will always need crude for basic materials. It is a building block for many products.

Oil Prices

Without a doubt, crude is priced way ahead of itself. And while prices could easily correct downward by 30 to 40% over as little as a two-month period, you should understand a few things before you get spooked. As we have seen, oil demand does not necessarily have a high correlation with oil prices in the short-term. Although there is certainly a correlation, OPEC agendas, military conflicts, speculation and momentum-driven trading often causes huge swings in price.

Many independent oil experts believe the long-term price trend for oil is headed much higher. So while a price of $140 per barrel might be a couple of years ahead of itself, even with a 40% correction in the near-term, it is very likely that the fair value trading price of oil will back at this level if not higher over the next two years anyway.

Many of the oil trusts were trading near or above current levels when oil was below $100 just a few months ago. So if oil does correct, this does not mean the price of these trusts will decline proportionately. As I will discuss below, these companies lock in oil prices so they can provide consistent dividends. Therefore, the trading price of these trusts is not likely to collapse with a large oil correction, as long as management is able to lock in prices. However, investors ultimately determine prices of securities so we never know. And price volatility is a reality of investing. What we really need to focus on is the dividend. Therefore we should ask whether a large correction in price will affect the forward dividends. For reasons I will get to shortly, I feel the dividends for at least my favorite two Canadian oil sands trusts (PGH and PWE) are fairly safe.

Finally, understand that many Canadian oil trusts typically hedge or lock in oil prices at certain rates so as to ensure consistent dividends for investors.

Hedging Success and Strategies

When looking at the dividend payouts of these trusts, you might wonder why in the case of Penn Growth for instance, the dividend has remained fairly constant for several months even when oil was well under the $80 mark. Rather than gamble that oil will remain at $140 per barrel, management uses oil futures contracts to lock in what it feels are reasonable prices for oil. If you examine some of the previous statements and headlines for Penn Growth, you will see the company reported losses based on futures contracts. The reason was most likely because management bet against oil going up. They did this because they wanted to play it safe. While we can never be sure whether they will continue this strategy, I would expect them to because it is the most prudent way to deliver a consistent earnings stream to investors while minimizing the downside. Thus, it would seem reasonable to conclude that even a large correction in crude of say 30% over a one or two month period would not alter the dividend by much. In fact, if traders think otherwise, these trusts could sell off as they have recently, thereby increasing the dividend yield, assuming the future dividends remain fairly consistent.

Tax Changes

As a way to encourage investment capital into the new Alberta sands region, the oil trusts were exempt from corporate taxation. Since that time, billions of dollars from all over the world have flooded into the region and now the government wants a piece of the action. A couple of years ago the Canadian government announced that the tax treatment for its trusts would be changed starting in 2011. This caused these trusts to sell off in panic. However, I would not anticipate the dividends to be effected by much. The good thing is that this news is already known and factored into the price of these trusts. But that does not mean there won’t be another correction just before 2011.

Management

The ability of each management team to run these companies with prudence is always a risk we take as investors.

Risk Comparison

When we compare the risk of oil trusts, we should look at asset classes with similar rates of return. The first type of asset class that comes to mind is REITs. After all that has happened to the real estate market, I do not think I need to discuss the risk level here. On average, the Canadian oil trusts I have mentioned are yielding around 14% annually. The only other major asset class that even comes close to this is small cap stocks. However, you should note that even small caps only return around 11% on average, and that is over a long period, such as 20 or 30 years. As well, the volatility is higher and there are some small caps that go bankrupt. I certainly wouldn’t want to be in small caps during this market.

Even if you are willing to assume the risk of small caps given current market conditions, you would most likely need to actively trade these stocks in order to secure any chance of annual double digit returns over say a 5-year horizon. Otherwise, you could end up flat or even down over that period. In contrast, the oil sands pay monthly dividends. That’s money that comes every month; money that can help neutralize the declining purchasing power of the dollar. In conclusion, whether you want to go Canadian or American, oil trusts offer an excellent solution to counter the effects of high inflation. And during this period of economic uncertainty, perhaps one of the few things we can be certain of is that oil will remain high for many years.


Conclusions

Remember, before you can justify investing in oil trusts, the oil story is something you have to fully believe in because these securities are volatile. While trading opportunities are definitely available, you should be willing to hold them for several years. In fact, at current prices and assuming historical dividend payouts to continue, your cost basis (before taxes) would approach zero if you bought and held Baytex, Paramount, Bonavista, Arc, Advantage, Crescent Point, Enerplus, Freehold or Penn West over the next eight years.

Bought 2,000 Units of Paramount Energy Trust Today

In spite of the market correction today I picked up 2,000 units of Paramount Energy Trust (PMT.UN-T).

Top Pick Canroys Based on Discount to Net Asset Value

The March 7, 2008 issue of the CIBC Oil & Gas Royalty Trust weekly report has a Net Asset Value matrix for most of the Canadian Oil & Gas Trusts (Canroys). I like to buy Oil and Gas Trusts based on Net Asset Value (NAV) since all these business's are selling the same product. There are other metrics to consider. However, NAV is a good base to start from.

Based on NAV my Top Picks are as follows;

Advantage Energy (AVN.UN-T $10.85) Trading at a 26% Discount to NAV of $14.75
Paramount Energy (PMT.UN-T $7.86) Trading at a 18% Discount to NAV of $ 9.62
Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T $21.00) Trading at a 12% Discount to NAV of $23.96

The discounts reported are based on March 7, 2008 closing prices.

Members of our mailing list will be emailed a copy of the CIBC report.

Please perform your own Due Dilligence.

In interest of full disclosure I own units in all three of the above Canroys.

Natural Gas Weighted Income Trusts

Natural Gas Weighted Energy Trusts have been decimated since the "Tax Fairness" policy was announced on October 31, 2006.

Despite the spike in trading activity year-to-date, unit prices still remain depressed for Trilogy Energy Trust (TET.UN-T) and Paramount Energy Trust(PMT.UN-T). February 2008 to-date, Paramount’s unit price is 46% below its pre-Tax Fairness level and 43% below for Trilogy. Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN-T) and Progress Energy Trust (PGX.UN-T) have fared better, and currently exhibit average prices only 9% and 12% below their pre-Tax Fairness levels respectively.

Investors seeking the most exposure to increased natural gas prices should consider both Trilogy and Paramount. Trilogy has the highest cash flow sensitivity to natural gas given its unhedged production, while Paramount’s cost structure (both operational and financial) provides leverage but 25% of their production is hedged.

I presently have positions in Paramount and Peyto.

Why I Think You Got to Look at Natural Gas (Again)

Don Coxe on Natural Gas in his February 21, 2008 Conference Call

Another commodity that we have not had good things to say about for a long, long time - natural gas - is one I want you to start looking at. And I want you to pull up a long term chart on natgas and what you'll see is this is a long term base pattern after the panic associated with Katrina when we told you to get out of the natural gas stocks and switch to metals.

It's a long sideways move. But the reason why I think you got to look at natural gas, again, is that it looks like it's about to break out of its base on the upside. And if it does, the natural gas, which is a short reserve life index fuel in the US, is now a situation where massive amounts of capital are being committed by the big oil companies led by ExxonMobil on pulling out tight gas from formations where in the past they couldn't possibly extract the gas. They're using new technology. This is expensive gas.

We're going to get a new floor price for gas set by this. In the case of ExxonMobil they're reason for doing it is primarily to protect their reserve life index. They've had to cut it by three full years, this year, because of what's been happening to them on oil from political risk. And, because of this magic that you can use six units of natural gas to equal a barrel of oil then ExxonMobil by developing reserves of natural gas, high-priced gas, can protect its reserve life index on this barrel of energy equivalent.

ExxonMobil is a brilliantly run company. They're going to do what they can to preserve their reserve life index. But another big company is involved in this because you've got General Electric promoting, once again, the sale of gas turbines for electricity. And with oil prices staying high and if you look…if you take the price of oil as far ahead as 2010 - December oil is now at 92.34, which means that for users of residual, what they can't see is any relief in the future. And natural gas, of course, also wins on the basis of environmentally-sound fuel because of small amounts of air pollution.

So I think you're going to have major companies out there with big followings. They're going to be promoting this. And what they can't do is rely on LNG for the reasons we've discussed on so many calls, particularly terror risk, but in addition the fact that the LNG suppliers out there, so much of it is from places in the world that have definite levels of political risk in them. That was going to be the saviour.

And as I told you before, six years ago I attended a meeting of the partners in the natural gas industry in the Chicago Land, which was both the users of natural gas and the major pipelines that delivered gas. And at that time I watched as the head of Marathon Oil's operations for natural gas in North America covered a wall with a chart of all the natural gas fields with their reserve life indices. And he pointed out that by the end of this decade, we were going to be facing a full-blown crisis in this country for natgas, but it was going to be solved by a pipeline that was going to bring it in from Canada.

And I got up at the meeting, spoke after him and said first of all he also said that LNG was going to come in big and I said I don't believe all those LNG projects are going to go forward because of 9/11. And the guy from Marathon jumped up and said “Who invited him to the meeting? We checked out our approvals for these projects with the FBI and they've all been approved as being safe. and I said, "Have you talked to them since 9/11?" and he said "No, we didn't have to. We've got approvals." And then I said, "As for the pipeline in Canada, that's not going to go forward in this decade. Not a chance." Once again he jumped up and said, "We have all the arrangements in place. We've got an agreement from the federal government in Ottawa that it's going forward," and I said, "You haven't got an agreement from the native peoples." Well the meeting became very difficult at that stage because once again he said I didn't know what I was talking about and there weren't going to be a few native tribes holding back a project like this. I tell you that only because it illustrates that the industry collectively had a comfort level on gas, which wasn't vindicated.

So we could get yet another energy surprise coming. And that's not just because we've
had such a cold winter because, of course, nobody out there who could be intellectually respected thought we could have cold winters. But, because it illustrates that the supply side response that you would have ordinarily expected, has been constrained by conditions they can't control.

So I think you have got to start looking at natgas as being maybe the next commodity that's going to join the bull market, having been in not a real bear market but a nothing market, for so long.
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This is the time to start buying oil and gas income trusts. I have been buying Paramount (PMT.UN), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN), PennWest (PWT.UN) and Daylight Energy Trust (DAY.UN).

When The Sun Doesn’t Shine and the Wind Doesn’t Blow We Need Natural Gas

When the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow, we need natural gas. Until new plants are approved and built for clean coal and nuclear, we need natural gas. If we want to subsidize agriculture, we need natural gas to convert food crops to energy. To supplement oil that faces increasingly short supply, we need natural gas. Finally, if hydrogen is going to be the last clean fuel, it will likely be created from natural gas.

Natural gas weighted Canroy's have natural gas selling at half price, judging by the incremental price of liquefied natural gas in Asia. Last week, according to trade reports, Japan paid $18 a million btu for the liquid form of the same commodity that is priced in the futures market at $8 for the next six years.

Since $18 LNG is roughly equivalent to $100 oil burned in the same Japanese power plants, the stark difference points to an upward price trend for the clean fuel.

Meanwhile, monthly distributions are likely to be higher in 2008 judging from the trend in the price for natural gas prices.

I have been buying NAE.UN, PMT.UN and PWT.UN.

Target Prices for Canadian Royalty Trusts

Please click here to download a spread sheet summary of Canadian Royalty Trust (affectionately known as Canroys) target prices by various Candadian Investment Houses as of September 28, 2007. Investors should use this information to determine good entry points into Canroy positions.

This spread sheet is courtesy of THOR on the Yahoo Canroy board.

Please note that this link will only be available until November 30, 2007.

Paramount Energy Trust - PMT.UN-T - New Top Pick

I picked up 5,000 units of Paramount Energy Trust (PMT.UN-T) for Under $8 this week. This is a risky pick because its 99% natural gas production.

Natural gas prices in Canada are very low and not very profitable.

However, Paramount has reduced their pay out to $0.10 per month ($1.20 per year) which results in a greater than 15% yield.

According to BMO research Paramounts "all-in" payout ratio is under 100% (all-in means cash distributions plus capital expenditures to maintain production) which means this trust is sustainable and high yielding.

If natural gas prices do recover then investors will see a nice capital gain. BMO's target price is $10 per unit. If paramount gets to $10 within a year then investors are rewarded with a total return of 40% (15% yield + 25% capital gain).

Now thats investing for income!

Please do your own due dilligence.