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Friday, November 23, 2007
SDT.UN Trading at a 14% Discount to Net Asset Value
Sentry Select just published the Net Asset Value (NAV) of SDT.UN as of November 22, 2007 of $4.71. It closed at $4.04 resulting in a $0.67 discount to NAV. This translates to a 14.2% discount to NAV.
It appears that the diversified exchange traded funds move towards a 15% discount NAV when the market is weak and uncertain.
Investors can't go wrong by purchasing these funds at such a deep discounts but you must be willing to hang on until the price recovers and I recommend trading this particular fund when it gets close to NAV or they announce share offerings. This particular fund is not a buy and hold type investment in my opinion.
It appears that the diversified exchange traded funds move towards a 15% discount NAV when the market is weak and uncertain.
Investors can't go wrong by purchasing these funds at such a deep discounts but you must be willing to hang on until the price recovers and I recommend trading this particular fund when it gets close to NAV or they announce share offerings. This particular fund is not a buy and hold type investment in my opinion.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Collapse of SDT.UN Market Price
Sentry Select Diversified income exchange traded fund has experienced a severe market price collapse. It appears to me that a lot of the new unit holders from the share exchange offering are jumpimg out of their positions.
The question on everyone's mind is why hasn't Sentry conducted a large buy back to support the unit price.
I can't answer this question but I can tell you the following;
Approximate Number of Units Outstanding as of Oct 1, 2007; 200,000,000
Approximate Nmber of Units Outstanding as of Oct 31, 2007; 265,000,000
Approximate number of units cancelled due to share purchase on the open market as of Oct 31, 2007; 6,500,000
Approximate number of units available for cancellation in the 4th quarter (5% of outstanding units at begining of qtr); 10,000,000
Approximate number of shares available for cancellation in Q4; 3,500,000
Approximate Number of Units held by Manager Sandy McIntyre; 365,000
Net Asset Value as of Nov 15, 2007 (even less now); $4.82
Market Value as of Nov 21, 2007 (even less today); $4.00
Discount to Net Asset Value; 17%
Annualized Distribution per Unit; $0.54
Yield on Market Value; 13.5%
Yield on Net Asset Value; 11.2%
It appears to me that SDT.UN will not repurchase units to support the unit price until later on this quarter. Until then if you want to sell you will need to accept a huge discount to Net Asset Value.
I am holding on to my remaining position until the units trade within 5% of Net Asset Value. At that point I will probably exit my position.
Please perform your own due diligence.
The question on everyone's mind is why hasn't Sentry conducted a large buy back to support the unit price.
I can't answer this question but I can tell you the following;
Approximate Number of Units Outstanding as of Oct 1, 2007; 200,000,000
Approximate Nmber of Units Outstanding as of Oct 31, 2007; 265,000,000
Approximate number of units cancelled due to share purchase on the open market as of Oct 31, 2007; 6,500,000
Approximate number of units available for cancellation in the 4th quarter (5% of outstanding units at begining of qtr); 10,000,000
Approximate number of shares available for cancellation in Q4; 3,500,000
Approximate Number of Units held by Manager Sandy McIntyre; 365,000
Net Asset Value as of Nov 15, 2007 (even less now); $4.82
Market Value as of Nov 21, 2007 (even less today); $4.00
Discount to Net Asset Value; 17%
Annualized Distribution per Unit; $0.54
Yield on Market Value; 13.5%
Yield on Net Asset Value; 11.2%
It appears to me that SDT.UN will not repurchase units to support the unit price until later on this quarter. Until then if you want to sell you will need to accept a huge discount to Net Asset Value.
I am holding on to my remaining position until the units trade within 5% of Net Asset Value. At that point I will probably exit my position.
Please perform your own due diligence.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Inflation or Deflation? - Canada Will Begin to Experience Deflation
Although inflation concerns are proving to be a concern due to rising commodity prices, other sectors of the economy such as retail prices and imported goods rasises the possiblity of a deflation scare are climbing in Canada.
Goods prices are already firmly in deflationary territory. Service sector inflation (outside of housing) failed to overly inflate during the boom, and is likely to lower in eastern Canada with the economy growing at a sub-par pace. Retailers are in price discounting mode. Inflation is not going to be a constraint on the Bank of Canada, and I expect rate cuts ahead, especially with the credit crunch continuing to roll on in the US.
As a matter of fact the bifurcating economy will result in the deflationary pressue of the non-commodity producing sector to overtake the inflationary pressure from the commodity sector resulting in a defaltionary bias.
This should provide a lift to interest sensitive securities over the coming months. I especially feel that Canadian REITS will be one of the first beneficiaries of this trend.
Goods prices are already firmly in deflationary territory. Service sector inflation (outside of housing) failed to overly inflate during the boom, and is likely to lower in eastern Canada with the economy growing at a sub-par pace. Retailers are in price discounting mode. Inflation is not going to be a constraint on the Bank of Canada, and I expect rate cuts ahead, especially with the credit crunch continuing to roll on in the US.
As a matter of fact the bifurcating economy will result in the deflationary pressue of the non-commodity producing sector to overtake the inflationary pressure from the commodity sector resulting in a defaltionary bias.
This should provide a lift to interest sensitive securities over the coming months. I especially feel that Canadian REITS will be one of the first beneficiaries of this trend.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Transcript of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's Address to US Congress on November 7, 2007
This posting is a little different than most of my postings. However, there is a major political and economic re-alignment taking place in the world today which is under the radar of most media. This has long term implications for our investments which I feel are very positive.
In a nutshell, the entire Eurozone (Eastern and Western Europe) is re-aligning themselves with the USA. Most of the media carries stories of world wide hatred of the USA and the latest American credit mess will be the downfall of the USA.
However, the exact opposite is true. I have written that we should never underestimate the Americans and they will get themselves out of this econmic credit mess and the US$ will eventualy recover.
To prove my point I am publishing the transcript of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's address to US Congress on November 7, 2007. France, under Chirac led the Eurozone and worldwide anti-american crusade. This speech is so pro-american that it shows the French have made a 180 degree turn on their foreign policy.
Please take a moment to read this transcript...you will be surpsised.
-----------------------------------------------------------
November 07, 2007
Renewing the French-American Alliance
By Nicolas Sarkozy
Madam Speaker, Mr. President, Ladies and Gentlemen of the United States Congress, Ladies and Gentlemen,
The state of our friendship and our alliance is strong.
Friendship, first and foremost, means being true to one's friends. Since the United States first appeared on the world scene, the loyalty between the French and American people has never failed. And far from being weakened by the vicissitudes of History, it has never ceased growing stronger.
Friends may have differences; they may have disagreements; they may have disputes.
But in times of difficulty, in times of hardship, friends stand together, side by side; they support each other; and help one another.
In times of difficulty, in times of hardship, America and France have always stood side by side, supported one another, helped one another, fought for each other's freedom.
The United States and France remain true to the memory of their common history, true to the blood spilled by their children in common battles. But they are not true merely to the memory of what they accomplished together in the past. They remain true, first and foremost, to the same ideal, the same principles, the same values that have always united them.
The deliberations of your Congress are conducted under the double gaze of Washington and Lafayette. Lafayette, whose 250th birthday we are celebrating this year and who was the first foreign dignitary, in 1824, to address a joint session of Congress. What was it that brought these two men--so far apart in age and background--together, if not their faith in common values, the heritage of the Enlightenment, the same love for freedom and justice?
Upon first meeting Washington, Lafayette told him: "I have come here to learn, not to teach." It was this new spirit and youth of the Old World seeking out the wisdom of the New World that opened a new era for all of humanity.
From the very beginning, the American dream meant putting into practice the dreams of the Old World.
From the very beginning, the American dream meant proving to all mankind that freedom, justice, human rights and democracy were no utopia but were rather the most realistic policy there is and the most likely to improve the fate of each and every person.
America did not tell the millions of men and women who came from every country in the world and who--with their hands, their intelligence and their heart--built the greatest nation in the world: "Come, and everything will be given to you." She said: "Come, and the only limits to what you'll be able to achieve will be your own courage and your own talent." America embodies this extraordinary ability to grant each and every person a second chance.
Here, both the humblest and most illustrious citizens alike know that nothing is owed to them and that everything has to be earned. That's what constitutes the moral value of America. America did not teach men the idea of freedom; she taught them how to practice it. And she fought for this freedom whenever she felt it to be threatened somewhere in the world. It was by watching America grow that men and women understood that freedom was possible.
What made America great was her ability to transform her own dream into hope for all mankind.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The men and women of my generation heard their grandparents talk about how in 1917, America saved France at a time when it had reached the final limits of its strength, which it had exhausted in the most absurd and bloodiest of wars.
The men and women of my generation heard their parents talk about how in 1944, America returned to free Europe from the horrifying tyranny that threatened to enslave it.
Fathers took their sons to see the vast cemeteries where, under thousands of white crosses so far from home, thousands of young American soldiers lay who had fallen not to defend their own freedom but the freedom of all others, not to defend their own families, their own homeland, but to defend humanity as a whole.
Fathers took their sons to the beaches where the young men of America had so heroically landed. They read them the admirable letters of farewell that those 20-year-old soldiers had written to their families before the battle to tell them: "We don't consider ourselves heroes. We want this war to be over. But however much dread we may feel, you can count on us." Before they landed, Eisenhower told them: "The eyes of the world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you."
And as they listened to their fathers, watched movies, read history books and the letters of soldiers who died on the beaches of Normandy and Provence, as they visited the cemeteries where the star-spangled banner flies, the children of my generation understood that these young Americans, 20 years old, were true heroes to whom they owed the fact that they were free people and not slaves. France will never forget the sacrifice of your children.
To those 20-year-old heroes who gave us everything, to the families of those who never returned, to the children who mourned fathers they barely got a chance to know, I want to express France's eternal gratitude.
On behalf of my generation, which did not experience war but knows how much it owes to their courage and their sacrifice; on behalf of our children, who must never forget; to all the veterans who are here today and, notably the seven I had the honor to decorate yesterday evening, one of whom, Senator Inouye, belongs to your Congress, I want to express the deep, sincere gratitude of the French people. I want to tell you that whenever an American soldier falls somewhere in the world, I think of what the American army did for France. I think of them and I am sad, as one is sad to lose a member of one's family.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The men and women of my generation remember the Marshall Plan that allowed their fathers to rebuild a devastated Europe. They remember the Cold War, during which America again stood as the bulwark of the Free World against the threat of new tyranny.
I remember the Berlin crisis and Kennedy who unhesitatingly risked engaging the United States in the most destructive of wars so that Europe could preserve the freedom for which the American people had already sacrificed so much. No one has the right to forget. Forgetting, for a person of my generation, would be tantamount to self-denial.
But my generation did not love America only because she had defended freedom. We also loved her because for us, she embodied what was most audacious about the human adventure; for us, she embodied the spirit of conquest. We loved America because for us, America was a new frontier that was continuously pushed back--a constantly renewed challenge to the inventiveness of the human spirit.
My generation shared all the American dreams. Our imaginations were fueled by the winning of the West and Hollywood. By Elvis Presley, Duke Ellington, Hemingway. By John Wayne, Charlton Heston, Marilyn Monroe, Rita Hayworth. And by Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins, fulfilling mankind's oldest dream.
What was so extraordinary for us was that through her literature, her cinema and her music, America always seemed to emerge from adversity even greater and stronger; that instead of causing America to doubt herself, such ordeals only strengthened her belief in her values.
What makes America strong is the strength of this ideal that is shared by all Americans and by all those who love her because they love freedom.
America's strength is not only a material strength, it is first and foremost a spiritual and moral strength. No one expressed this better than a black pastor who asked just one thing of America: that she be true to the ideal in whose name he--the grandson of a slave--felt so deeply American. His name was Martin Luther King. He made America a universal role model.
The world still remembers his words--words of love, dignity and justice. America heard those words and America changed. And the men and women who had doubted America because they no longer recognized her began loving her again.
Fundamentally, what are those who love America asking of her, if not to remain forever true to her founding values?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today as in the past, as we stand at the beginning of the 21st century, it is together that we must fight to defend and promote the values and ideals of freedom and democracy that men such as Washington and Lafayette invented together.
Together we must fight against terrorism. On September 11, 2001, all of France--petrified with horror--rallied to the side of the American people. The front-page headline of one of our major dailies read: "We are all American." And on that day, when you were mourning for so many dead, never had America appeared to us as so great, so dignified, so strong. The terrorists had thought they would weaken you. They made you greater. The entire world felt admiration for the courage of the American people. And from day one, France decided to participate shoulder to shoulder with you in the war in Afghanistan. Let me tell you solemnly today: France will remain engaged in Afghanistan as long as it takes, because what's at stake in that country is the future of our values and that of the Atlantic Alliance. For me, failure is not an option. Terrorism will not win because democracies are not weak, because we are not afraid of this barbarism. America can count on France.
Together we must fight against proliferation. Success in Libya and progress under way in North Korea shows that nuclear proliferation is not inevitable. Let me say it here before all of you: The prospect of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is unacceptable. The Iranian people is a great people. It deserves better than the increased sanctions and growing isolation to which its leaders condemn it. Iran must be convinced to choose cooperation, dialogue and openness. No one must doubt our determination.
Together we must help the people of the Middle East find the path of peace and security. To the Israeli and Palestinian leaders I say this: Don't hesitate! Risk peace! And do it now! The status quo hides even greater dangers: that of delivering Palestinian society as a whole to the extremists that contest Israel's existence; that of playing into the hands of radical regimes that are exploiting the deadlock in the conflict to destabilize the region; that of fueling the propaganda of terrorists who want to set Islam against the West. France wants security for Israel and a State for the Palestinians.
Together we must help the Lebanese people affirm their independence, their sovereignty, their freedom, their democracy. What Lebanon needs today is a broad-based president elected according to the established schedule and in strict respect of the Constitution. France stands engaged alongside all the Lebanese. It will not accept attempts to subjugate the Lebanese people.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
America feels it has the vocation to inspire the world. Because she is the most powerful country in the world. Because, for more than two centuries, she has striven to uphold the ideals of democracy and freedom. But this stated responsibility comes with duties, the first of which is setting an example.
Those who love this nation which, more than any other, has demonstrated the virtues of free enterprise expect America to be the first to denounce the abuses and excesses of a financial capitalism that sets too great a store on speculation. They expect her to commit fully to the establishment of the necessary rules and safeguards. The America I love is the one that encourages entrepreneurs, not speculators.
Those who admire the nation that has built the world's greatest economy and has never ceased trying to persuade the world of the advantages of free trade expect her to be the first to promote fair exchange rates. The yuan is already everyone's problem. The dollar cannot remain solely the problem of others. If we're not careful, monetary disarray could morph into economic war. We would all be its victims.
Those who love the country of wide open spaces, national parks and nature reserves expect America to stand alongside Europe in leading the fight against global warming that threatens the destruction of our planet. I know that each day, in their cities and states, the American people are more aware of the stakes and determined to act. This essential fight for the future of humanity must be all of America's fight.
Those who have not forgotten that it was the United States that, at the end of the Second World War, raised hopes for a new world order are asking America to take the lead in the necessary reforms of the UN, the IMF, the World Bank and the G8. Our globalized world must be organized for the 21st century, not for the last century. The emerging countries we need for global equilibrium must be given their rightful place.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Allow me to express one last conviction: Trust Europe.
In this unstable, dangerous world, the United States of America needs a strong, determined Europe. With the simplified treaty I proposed to our partners, the European Union is about to emerge from 10 years of discussions on its institutions and 10 years of paralysis. Soon it will have a stable president and a more powerful High Representative for foreign and security policy, and it must now reactivate the construction of its military capacities.
The ambition I am proposing to our partners is based on a simple observation: There are more crises than there are capacities to face them. NATO cannot be everywhere. The EU must be able to act, as it did in the Balkans and in the Congo, and as it will tomorrow on the border of Sudan and Chad. For that the Europeans must step up their efforts.
My approach is purely pragmatic. Having learned from history, I want the Europeans, in the years to come, to have the means to shoulder a growing share of their defense. Who could blame the United States for ensuring its own security? No one. Who could blame me for wanting Europe to ensure more of its own security? No one. All of our Allies, beginning with the United States, with whom we most often share the same interests and the same adversaries, have a strategic interest in a Europe that can assert itself as a strong, credible security partner.
At the same time, I want to affirm my attachment to NATO. I say it here before this Congress: The more successful we are in the establishment of a European Defense, the more France will be resolved to resume its full role in NATO.
I would like France, a founding member of our Alliance and already one of its largest contributors, to assume its full role in the effort to renew NATO's instruments and means of action and, in this context, to allow its relations with the Alliance to evolve.
This is no time for theological quarrels but for pragmatic responses to make our security tools more effective and operational in the face of crises. The EU and NATO must march hand in hand.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I want to be your friend, your ally and your partner. But a friend who stands on his own two feet. An independent ally. A free partner.
France must be stronger. I am determined to carry through with the reforms that my country has put off for all too long. I will not turn back, because France has turned back for all too long. My country has enormous assets. While respecting its unique identity, I want to put it into a position to win all the battles of globalization. I passionately love France. I am lucid about the work that remains to be accomplished.
It is this ambitious France that I have come to present to you today. A France that comes out to meet America to renew the pact of friendship and the alliance that Washington and Lafayette sealed in Yorktown.
Together let us be worthy of their example, let us be equal to their ambition, let us be true to their memories!
Long live the United States of America!
Vive la France!
Long live French-American friendship!
Nicolas Sarkozy is the President of France.
In a nutshell, the entire Eurozone (Eastern and Western Europe) is re-aligning themselves with the USA. Most of the media carries stories of world wide hatred of the USA and the latest American credit mess will be the downfall of the USA.
However, the exact opposite is true. I have written that we should never underestimate the Americans and they will get themselves out of this econmic credit mess and the US$ will eventualy recover.
To prove my point I am publishing the transcript of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's address to US Congress on November 7, 2007. France, under Chirac led the Eurozone and worldwide anti-american crusade. This speech is so pro-american that it shows the French have made a 180 degree turn on their foreign policy.
Please take a moment to read this transcript...you will be surpsised.
-----------------------------------------------------------
November 07, 2007
Renewing the French-American Alliance
By Nicolas Sarkozy
Madam Speaker, Mr. President, Ladies and Gentlemen of the United States Congress, Ladies and Gentlemen,
The state of our friendship and our alliance is strong.
Friendship, first and foremost, means being true to one's friends. Since the United States first appeared on the world scene, the loyalty between the French and American people has never failed. And far from being weakened by the vicissitudes of History, it has never ceased growing stronger.
Friends may have differences; they may have disagreements; they may have disputes.
But in times of difficulty, in times of hardship, friends stand together, side by side; they support each other; and help one another.
In times of difficulty, in times of hardship, America and France have always stood side by side, supported one another, helped one another, fought for each other's freedom.
The United States and France remain true to the memory of their common history, true to the blood spilled by their children in common battles. But they are not true merely to the memory of what they accomplished together in the past. They remain true, first and foremost, to the same ideal, the same principles, the same values that have always united them.
The deliberations of your Congress are conducted under the double gaze of Washington and Lafayette. Lafayette, whose 250th birthday we are celebrating this year and who was the first foreign dignitary, in 1824, to address a joint session of Congress. What was it that brought these two men--so far apart in age and background--together, if not their faith in common values, the heritage of the Enlightenment, the same love for freedom and justice?
Upon first meeting Washington, Lafayette told him: "I have come here to learn, not to teach." It was this new spirit and youth of the Old World seeking out the wisdom of the New World that opened a new era for all of humanity.
From the very beginning, the American dream meant putting into practice the dreams of the Old World.
From the very beginning, the American dream meant proving to all mankind that freedom, justice, human rights and democracy were no utopia but were rather the most realistic policy there is and the most likely to improve the fate of each and every person.
America did not tell the millions of men and women who came from every country in the world and who--with their hands, their intelligence and their heart--built the greatest nation in the world: "Come, and everything will be given to you." She said: "Come, and the only limits to what you'll be able to achieve will be your own courage and your own talent." America embodies this extraordinary ability to grant each and every person a second chance.
Here, both the humblest and most illustrious citizens alike know that nothing is owed to them and that everything has to be earned. That's what constitutes the moral value of America. America did not teach men the idea of freedom; she taught them how to practice it. And she fought for this freedom whenever she felt it to be threatened somewhere in the world. It was by watching America grow that men and women understood that freedom was possible.
What made America great was her ability to transform her own dream into hope for all mankind.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The men and women of my generation heard their grandparents talk about how in 1917, America saved France at a time when it had reached the final limits of its strength, which it had exhausted in the most absurd and bloodiest of wars.
The men and women of my generation heard their parents talk about how in 1944, America returned to free Europe from the horrifying tyranny that threatened to enslave it.
Fathers took their sons to see the vast cemeteries where, under thousands of white crosses so far from home, thousands of young American soldiers lay who had fallen not to defend their own freedom but the freedom of all others, not to defend their own families, their own homeland, but to defend humanity as a whole.
Fathers took their sons to the beaches where the young men of America had so heroically landed. They read them the admirable letters of farewell that those 20-year-old soldiers had written to their families before the battle to tell them: "We don't consider ourselves heroes. We want this war to be over. But however much dread we may feel, you can count on us." Before they landed, Eisenhower told them: "The eyes of the world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you."
And as they listened to their fathers, watched movies, read history books and the letters of soldiers who died on the beaches of Normandy and Provence, as they visited the cemeteries where the star-spangled banner flies, the children of my generation understood that these young Americans, 20 years old, were true heroes to whom they owed the fact that they were free people and not slaves. France will never forget the sacrifice of your children.
To those 20-year-old heroes who gave us everything, to the families of those who never returned, to the children who mourned fathers they barely got a chance to know, I want to express France's eternal gratitude.
On behalf of my generation, which did not experience war but knows how much it owes to their courage and their sacrifice; on behalf of our children, who must never forget; to all the veterans who are here today and, notably the seven I had the honor to decorate yesterday evening, one of whom, Senator Inouye, belongs to your Congress, I want to express the deep, sincere gratitude of the French people. I want to tell you that whenever an American soldier falls somewhere in the world, I think of what the American army did for France. I think of them and I am sad, as one is sad to lose a member of one's family.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The men and women of my generation remember the Marshall Plan that allowed their fathers to rebuild a devastated Europe. They remember the Cold War, during which America again stood as the bulwark of the Free World against the threat of new tyranny.
I remember the Berlin crisis and Kennedy who unhesitatingly risked engaging the United States in the most destructive of wars so that Europe could preserve the freedom for which the American people had already sacrificed so much. No one has the right to forget. Forgetting, for a person of my generation, would be tantamount to self-denial.
But my generation did not love America only because she had defended freedom. We also loved her because for us, she embodied what was most audacious about the human adventure; for us, she embodied the spirit of conquest. We loved America because for us, America was a new frontier that was continuously pushed back--a constantly renewed challenge to the inventiveness of the human spirit.
My generation shared all the American dreams. Our imaginations were fueled by the winning of the West and Hollywood. By Elvis Presley, Duke Ellington, Hemingway. By John Wayne, Charlton Heston, Marilyn Monroe, Rita Hayworth. And by Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins, fulfilling mankind's oldest dream.
What was so extraordinary for us was that through her literature, her cinema and her music, America always seemed to emerge from adversity even greater and stronger; that instead of causing America to doubt herself, such ordeals only strengthened her belief in her values.
What makes America strong is the strength of this ideal that is shared by all Americans and by all those who love her because they love freedom.
America's strength is not only a material strength, it is first and foremost a spiritual and moral strength. No one expressed this better than a black pastor who asked just one thing of America: that she be true to the ideal in whose name he--the grandson of a slave--felt so deeply American. His name was Martin Luther King. He made America a universal role model.
The world still remembers his words--words of love, dignity and justice. America heard those words and America changed. And the men and women who had doubted America because they no longer recognized her began loving her again.
Fundamentally, what are those who love America asking of her, if not to remain forever true to her founding values?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today as in the past, as we stand at the beginning of the 21st century, it is together that we must fight to defend and promote the values and ideals of freedom and democracy that men such as Washington and Lafayette invented together.
Together we must fight against terrorism. On September 11, 2001, all of France--petrified with horror--rallied to the side of the American people. The front-page headline of one of our major dailies read: "We are all American." And on that day, when you were mourning for so many dead, never had America appeared to us as so great, so dignified, so strong. The terrorists had thought they would weaken you. They made you greater. The entire world felt admiration for the courage of the American people. And from day one, France decided to participate shoulder to shoulder with you in the war in Afghanistan. Let me tell you solemnly today: France will remain engaged in Afghanistan as long as it takes, because what's at stake in that country is the future of our values and that of the Atlantic Alliance. For me, failure is not an option. Terrorism will not win because democracies are not weak, because we are not afraid of this barbarism. America can count on France.
Together we must fight against proliferation. Success in Libya and progress under way in North Korea shows that nuclear proliferation is not inevitable. Let me say it here before all of you: The prospect of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is unacceptable. The Iranian people is a great people. It deserves better than the increased sanctions and growing isolation to which its leaders condemn it. Iran must be convinced to choose cooperation, dialogue and openness. No one must doubt our determination.
Together we must help the people of the Middle East find the path of peace and security. To the Israeli and Palestinian leaders I say this: Don't hesitate! Risk peace! And do it now! The status quo hides even greater dangers: that of delivering Palestinian society as a whole to the extremists that contest Israel's existence; that of playing into the hands of radical regimes that are exploiting the deadlock in the conflict to destabilize the region; that of fueling the propaganda of terrorists who want to set Islam against the West. France wants security for Israel and a State for the Palestinians.
Together we must help the Lebanese people affirm their independence, their sovereignty, their freedom, their democracy. What Lebanon needs today is a broad-based president elected according to the established schedule and in strict respect of the Constitution. France stands engaged alongside all the Lebanese. It will not accept attempts to subjugate the Lebanese people.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
America feels it has the vocation to inspire the world. Because she is the most powerful country in the world. Because, for more than two centuries, she has striven to uphold the ideals of democracy and freedom. But this stated responsibility comes with duties, the first of which is setting an example.
Those who love this nation which, more than any other, has demonstrated the virtues of free enterprise expect America to be the first to denounce the abuses and excesses of a financial capitalism that sets too great a store on speculation. They expect her to commit fully to the establishment of the necessary rules and safeguards. The America I love is the one that encourages entrepreneurs, not speculators.
Those who admire the nation that has built the world's greatest economy and has never ceased trying to persuade the world of the advantages of free trade expect her to be the first to promote fair exchange rates. The yuan is already everyone's problem. The dollar cannot remain solely the problem of others. If we're not careful, monetary disarray could morph into economic war. We would all be its victims.
Those who love the country of wide open spaces, national parks and nature reserves expect America to stand alongside Europe in leading the fight against global warming that threatens the destruction of our planet. I know that each day, in their cities and states, the American people are more aware of the stakes and determined to act. This essential fight for the future of humanity must be all of America's fight.
Those who have not forgotten that it was the United States that, at the end of the Second World War, raised hopes for a new world order are asking America to take the lead in the necessary reforms of the UN, the IMF, the World Bank and the G8. Our globalized world must be organized for the 21st century, not for the last century. The emerging countries we need for global equilibrium must be given their rightful place.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Allow me to express one last conviction: Trust Europe.
In this unstable, dangerous world, the United States of America needs a strong, determined Europe. With the simplified treaty I proposed to our partners, the European Union is about to emerge from 10 years of discussions on its institutions and 10 years of paralysis. Soon it will have a stable president and a more powerful High Representative for foreign and security policy, and it must now reactivate the construction of its military capacities.
The ambition I am proposing to our partners is based on a simple observation: There are more crises than there are capacities to face them. NATO cannot be everywhere. The EU must be able to act, as it did in the Balkans and in the Congo, and as it will tomorrow on the border of Sudan and Chad. For that the Europeans must step up their efforts.
My approach is purely pragmatic. Having learned from history, I want the Europeans, in the years to come, to have the means to shoulder a growing share of their defense. Who could blame the United States for ensuring its own security? No one. Who could blame me for wanting Europe to ensure more of its own security? No one. All of our Allies, beginning with the United States, with whom we most often share the same interests and the same adversaries, have a strategic interest in a Europe that can assert itself as a strong, credible security partner.
At the same time, I want to affirm my attachment to NATO. I say it here before this Congress: The more successful we are in the establishment of a European Defense, the more France will be resolved to resume its full role in NATO.
I would like France, a founding member of our Alliance and already one of its largest contributors, to assume its full role in the effort to renew NATO's instruments and means of action and, in this context, to allow its relations with the Alliance to evolve.
This is no time for theological quarrels but for pragmatic responses to make our security tools more effective and operational in the face of crises. The EU and NATO must march hand in hand.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I want to be your friend, your ally and your partner. But a friend who stands on his own two feet. An independent ally. A free partner.
France must be stronger. I am determined to carry through with the reforms that my country has put off for all too long. I will not turn back, because France has turned back for all too long. My country has enormous assets. While respecting its unique identity, I want to put it into a position to win all the battles of globalization. I passionately love France. I am lucid about the work that remains to be accomplished.
It is this ambitious France that I have come to present to you today. A France that comes out to meet America to renew the pact of friendship and the alliance that Washington and Lafayette sealed in Yorktown.
Together let us be worthy of their example, let us be equal to their ambition, let us be true to their memories!
Long live the United States of America!
Vive la France!
Long live French-American friendship!
Nicolas Sarkozy is the President of France.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Is It Time to Get Out of the Market? Not Yet!
Once in awhile I like to republish an article that I have read that seems very relevant. This past year has been troubling as my income from investments has been eaten up by capital losses. I have been seriously rethinking my strategy because of all the uncertainty in the market.
I subscribe to Max Whitmores newsletters. I just received this news letter and its not yet published on his web site. I am watching his key line chart. If the markets violate his chart I think we may have to move into cash.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Whitmore: It’s A Confidence Thing
I have been through a lot of ups and downs in my 40 years as a broker-money-manager-analyst-columnist and they are always the same in one crucial respect. There comes a moment when one side or the other — the bulls or the bears — blink.
Call it what you will, this business is a business of backbone and beliefs. The beliefs that one carries down deep in his heart of hearts about anything is the true summing up of an individual’s outlook on life and selection of values and ethics to live by. But the even greater part of that heart is the backbone. Call it courage, guts, or what have you, to brace against the storms that seek to shake one’s deeply held convictions.
Now, hang with me on this. This is not a philosophical discussion I am embarking on today. It is a look at what I believe is one of those pivotal moments of our current market cycle where somebody’s about to blink. Yes, I have written on this subject before, alerting you to this coming event, but at that time we weren’t upon the threshold of the event.
In my estimation, the next three to four weeks will determine the direction this market takes for the next six to 12 months. And it will all come down to the same “one moment” I have seen so often before, where one side or the other blinks.
What is it that causes the blink? It is the oldest of old human qualities — CONFIDENCE. In this case, it will be the confidence in one’s studied evaluation of the economic facts against the huge supply of rumors that have filled many pages and talk shows during the last six months or so.
Will this deluge be bad enough that the bulls will blink or will the stubborn refusal of the market to tank finally sap the bears determination to drive the market lower? Clearly, it will be a confidence thing for either side.
Again, hang with me as I would like to digress for just a moment. Early in my career in this business, I was fortunate enough to have met a guy that, as I look back on it now, was one of the most savvy market analysts that I have ever met. His name was Roy Klopper.
He was a contrary son-of-a-gun, he was. Short on talk, unless it was to say something that counted and yet, one of the nicest guys I have ever met. For reasons I still don’t understand, he took me under his wing in those days because I was really struggling to try and understand this business and frankly not doing too well at it.
Roy took me to lunch one day after a particularly tough morning and after a sandwich and coffee (I had to pay — he never gave anything away, he said) he proceeded to spend three hours telling me what it was all about.
The bottom line was, he said, I needed to forget all about studying that huge number of reports I got every week on all of those companies. He told me even the best fundamentalist can’t remember all those facts and figures. He said, “Go to the one place where nobody can fool you. Go to the charts.”
I listened to him and embarked on what turned out to be a four-year study course from Professor Roy. What did I learn? I learned the basics of how to build what I now call my Super Chart. In it is included all the world’s real-time evaluation of what the future holds for investors. He said that it was far more important to listen to what people do versus what they say they might do.
OK, back to business. Just below is my current Weekly Super Chart for the S&P 500, as of the close on Nov. 14.
Can I ask you for one final hang in there? I have been asked quite often why I use the S&P 500 instead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to call the market moves. The answer is really quite simple.
The 500 stocks are much more difficult to distort with concentrated trading by big traders than the Dow. Often in tough markets, the big money will concentrate on the Dow (comfort food for big money) and avoid the S&P stocks.
The result is a false picture of the market. Let me illustrate. Below is my Dow Jones Industrial Average Super Chart for the same period as the above S&P 500. Note especially the period from 2000 to mid-2003.
The S&P gave a solid sell signal during the week of Nov. 17, 2000, but not the Dow. The S&P never gave another signal until the week of June 20, 2003, while the Dow gave no less than five and, depending on the interpretation, as many as seven false signals. Hope that helps you better understand why I use the S&P.
But now, back to the guts of this column. After a huge 3000-point Dow point from July 2006 to July 2007, the market has seemingly chosen to work a 1,000 point range between Dow 13,000 and 14,000. Such trading ranges are not unusual, but occur more often at the bottom of a decline, not the top of a move.
A trading range at the top of a move is, 75 percent of the time, a “cooling off” move, “a correction in time” Roy use to called it.
The length of this correction period is usually best timed by counting the number of times the correction touches the bottom and top of the trading range without breaking through it to the upside or downside.
This current correction has touched top and bottom four times (including the new high as touch No. 1. And count the last touch No. 4 as last Friday, even though it did not close right on the trading range low at S&P 1432.
I have seen trading ranges go as many times as seven touches before they break — usually BIG! So, yes, we could still see as many as three touches before one side or the other blinks.
But I think that this trading range, being at the top of the move, leans more to the fewer touches (say four to five) before the breakaway. That puts us very, very near a possible break-away move.
So, what does my deep-down confidence say will happen? Well, both of the bottom touches in this trading range occurred above my Super Chart Keyline, 35 points for the first touch and 55 points on the fourth touch last Friday, but both were clearly above.
Experience tells me when this happens the move has a probability of better than 70 percent to 75 percent to break to the upside when all is said and done.
But, we are close enough to the Keyline to have to keep a close eye on it the next several weeks. We had a very similar situation in July 2006 and in that one the bears blinked first. Then, what a beautiful rally!
Bottom line is that despite all the fears, rumors, ups and downs of the market, scandals, and potential (notice I said potential) disasters looming in the background, the majority of traders still see a good future in the market — at least up until the close on Tuesday. For now, that is the real news of the day.
As I get ready to close this week’s column, it is interesting that some sage words of my mentor come to mind. As I neared the finish of his four years of training, Roy said to me, “Max, above all I have taught you, remember this first rule.
Never, never get married to a price target or the direction in which you think the market should go. Let it tell you what is happening. Put your confidence in the chart, and then put your money where its mouth is.”
I have never forgotten that sublime, quietly spoken sentence. It has saves me many times when I was just so sure that the chart must be wrong!
My advice to you is the same. Until we see different, use sell-offs to be a buyer. Look for bargains in stocks you like and know something about. And buy long-term call LEAPS on the S&P or Dow and cash in even more. As long as the Super Chart says buy, let it tell us what to do. And above all, don’t blink!!
I subscribe to Max Whitmores newsletters. I just received this news letter and its not yet published on his web site. I am watching his key line chart. If the markets violate his chart I think we may have to move into cash.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Whitmore: It’s A Confidence Thing
I have been through a lot of ups and downs in my 40 years as a broker-money-manager-analyst-columnist and they are always the same in one crucial respect. There comes a moment when one side or the other — the bulls or the bears — blink.
Call it what you will, this business is a business of backbone and beliefs. The beliefs that one carries down deep in his heart of hearts about anything is the true summing up of an individual’s outlook on life and selection of values and ethics to live by. But the even greater part of that heart is the backbone. Call it courage, guts, or what have you, to brace against the storms that seek to shake one’s deeply held convictions.
Now, hang with me on this. This is not a philosophical discussion I am embarking on today. It is a look at what I believe is one of those pivotal moments of our current market cycle where somebody’s about to blink. Yes, I have written on this subject before, alerting you to this coming event, but at that time we weren’t upon the threshold of the event.
In my estimation, the next three to four weeks will determine the direction this market takes for the next six to 12 months. And it will all come down to the same “one moment” I have seen so often before, where one side or the other blinks.
What is it that causes the blink? It is the oldest of old human qualities — CONFIDENCE. In this case, it will be the confidence in one’s studied evaluation of the economic facts against the huge supply of rumors that have filled many pages and talk shows during the last six months or so.
Will this deluge be bad enough that the bulls will blink or will the stubborn refusal of the market to tank finally sap the bears determination to drive the market lower? Clearly, it will be a confidence thing for either side.
Again, hang with me as I would like to digress for just a moment. Early in my career in this business, I was fortunate enough to have met a guy that, as I look back on it now, was one of the most savvy market analysts that I have ever met. His name was Roy Klopper.
He was a contrary son-of-a-gun, he was. Short on talk, unless it was to say something that counted and yet, one of the nicest guys I have ever met. For reasons I still don’t understand, he took me under his wing in those days because I was really struggling to try and understand this business and frankly not doing too well at it.
Roy took me to lunch one day after a particularly tough morning and after a sandwich and coffee (I had to pay — he never gave anything away, he said) he proceeded to spend three hours telling me what it was all about.
The bottom line was, he said, I needed to forget all about studying that huge number of reports I got every week on all of those companies. He told me even the best fundamentalist can’t remember all those facts and figures. He said, “Go to the one place where nobody can fool you. Go to the charts.”
I listened to him and embarked on what turned out to be a four-year study course from Professor Roy. What did I learn? I learned the basics of how to build what I now call my Super Chart. In it is included all the world’s real-time evaluation of what the future holds for investors. He said that it was far more important to listen to what people do versus what they say they might do.
OK, back to business. Just below is my current Weekly Super Chart for the S&P 500, as of the close on Nov. 14.
Can I ask you for one final hang in there? I have been asked quite often why I use the S&P 500 instead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to call the market moves. The answer is really quite simple.
The 500 stocks are much more difficult to distort with concentrated trading by big traders than the Dow. Often in tough markets, the big money will concentrate on the Dow (comfort food for big money) and avoid the S&P stocks.
The result is a false picture of the market. Let me illustrate. Below is my Dow Jones Industrial Average Super Chart for the same period as the above S&P 500. Note especially the period from 2000 to mid-2003.
The S&P gave a solid sell signal during the week of Nov. 17, 2000, but not the Dow. The S&P never gave another signal until the week of June 20, 2003, while the Dow gave no less than five and, depending on the interpretation, as many as seven false signals. Hope that helps you better understand why I use the S&P.
But now, back to the guts of this column. After a huge 3000-point Dow point from July 2006 to July 2007, the market has seemingly chosen to work a 1,000 point range between Dow 13,000 and 14,000. Such trading ranges are not unusual, but occur more often at the bottom of a decline, not the top of a move.
A trading range at the top of a move is, 75 percent of the time, a “cooling off” move, “a correction in time” Roy use to called it.
The length of this correction period is usually best timed by counting the number of times the correction touches the bottom and top of the trading range without breaking through it to the upside or downside.
This current correction has touched top and bottom four times (including the new high as touch No. 1. And count the last touch No. 4 as last Friday, even though it did not close right on the trading range low at S&P 1432.
I have seen trading ranges go as many times as seven touches before they break — usually BIG! So, yes, we could still see as many as three touches before one side or the other blinks.
But I think that this trading range, being at the top of the move, leans more to the fewer touches (say four to five) before the breakaway. That puts us very, very near a possible break-away move.
So, what does my deep-down confidence say will happen? Well, both of the bottom touches in this trading range occurred above my Super Chart Keyline, 35 points for the first touch and 55 points on the fourth touch last Friday, but both were clearly above.
Experience tells me when this happens the move has a probability of better than 70 percent to 75 percent to break to the upside when all is said and done.
But, we are close enough to the Keyline to have to keep a close eye on it the next several weeks. We had a very similar situation in July 2006 and in that one the bears blinked first. Then, what a beautiful rally!
Bottom line is that despite all the fears, rumors, ups and downs of the market, scandals, and potential (notice I said potential) disasters looming in the background, the majority of traders still see a good future in the market — at least up until the close on Tuesday. For now, that is the real news of the day.
As I get ready to close this week’s column, it is interesting that some sage words of my mentor come to mind. As I neared the finish of his four years of training, Roy said to me, “Max, above all I have taught you, remember this first rule.
Never, never get married to a price target or the direction in which you think the market should go. Let it tell you what is happening. Put your confidence in the chart, and then put your money where its mouth is.”
I have never forgotten that sublime, quietly spoken sentence. It has saves me many times when I was just so sure that the chart must be wrong!
My advice to you is the same. Until we see different, use sell-offs to be a buyer. Look for bargains in stocks you like and know something about. And buy long-term call LEAPS on the S&P or Dow and cash in even more. As long as the Super Chart says buy, let it tell us what to do. And above all, don’t blink!!
Sunday, November 11, 2007
NAL Oil and Gas Trust -NAE.UN-T- Has Interesting Exploration Upside
RBC reports that Q3 Results are good with 45% production from natural gas and 55% from oil.
At the close of the third quarter 2007, NAL had 650 boe/d of production ready to be tied in, which will occur in Q4 2007. Furthermore, NAL is primed to increase its production as a result of a number of development projects now underway.
The next milestone are the three high impact Seneca Wells which are getting closer . The results of three high impact wells from the Seneca acquisition are nearing release. Depending on the outcome of the three Seneca wells, NAL should have further development potential opportunities with its partners.
RBC's target price and Rating Unchanged. RBC are maintaining their 12-month price target of $12.25 /unit, and an Outperform but RBC have not included the possible results of the three new wells.
We believe NAL has an interesting mix of exploration and development prospects converging in 2008, which could prove financially rewarding to patient investors.
I had a large position in NAE in 2006 but I sold it all because of the Halloween 2006 Tax Fairness Plan massacre.
Presently, NAE has has a $0.16 per month ($1.92 per year) distribution resulting in a yield of 15.6%. The payout ratio 69% and the payout ratio including capital expenditures is 114%. This Trust has some exploration upside potential. With a +15% yield you get paid to wait. Hopefully we not only get our distibutions but some capital gains potential too.
Now that is investing for income!
At the close of the third quarter 2007, NAL had 650 boe/d of production ready to be tied in, which will occur in Q4 2007. Furthermore, NAL is primed to increase its production as a result of a number of development projects now underway.
The next milestone are the three high impact Seneca Wells which are getting closer . The results of three high impact wells from the Seneca acquisition are nearing release. Depending on the outcome of the three Seneca wells, NAL should have further development potential opportunities with its partners.
RBC's target price and Rating Unchanged. RBC are maintaining their 12-month price target of $12.25 /unit, and an Outperform but RBC have not included the possible results of the three new wells.
We believe NAL has an interesting mix of exploration and development prospects converging in 2008, which could prove financially rewarding to patient investors.
I had a large position in NAE in 2006 but I sold it all because of the Halloween 2006 Tax Fairness Plan massacre.
Presently, NAE has has a $0.16 per month ($1.92 per year) distribution resulting in a yield of 15.6%. The payout ratio 69% and the payout ratio including capital expenditures is 114%. This Trust has some exploration upside potential. With a +15% yield you get paid to wait. Hopefully we not only get our distibutions but some capital gains potential too.
Now that is investing for income!
Saturday, November 10, 2007
SDT.UN and EIT.UN Trying to Support Unit Price With Buy Backs on the Open Market
The managers of SDT.UN and EIT.UN were actively in the market last week trying to support their unit prices.
Its hard to believe how far the unit prices have fallen and the discount to Net Asset Values are widening. Its no question that they are experiencing panic selling.
I have not sold the positions I still have at this point because sooner or later the unit prices will get closer to their net asset value. Furthermore, these stock buy backs will automatically increase the Net Asset Values of the remaining units.
Its like shooting fish in a barrell for the managers right now. They can raise their Net Asset values just by purchasing units. They will look like geniuses.
As the unit prices approach 95% of Net asset value I will begin to unload my remaining units.
Its hard to believe how far the unit prices have fallen and the discount to Net Asset Values are widening. Its no question that they are experiencing panic selling.
I have not sold the positions I still have at this point because sooner or later the unit prices will get closer to their net asset value. Furthermore, these stock buy backs will automatically increase the Net Asset Values of the remaining units.
Its like shooting fish in a barrell for the managers right now. They can raise their Net Asset values just by purchasing units. They will look like geniuses.
As the unit prices approach 95% of Net asset value I will begin to unload my remaining units.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Verenex Energy Q3 Results- $19 Haywod Securities Target
Verenex Energy (VNX : TSX : $10.65)
Verenex issued their third quarter results. They spudded their seventh well in Libya. However, they don't expect cash flow from their Libyan discoveries until late 2009.
Haywood Securities maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $19.00.
This is one of two "none income" producing holdings at this time. A safer way to play Verenex is by holding Vermillion Energy Trust (VET.UN:TSX) which is Verenex's largest sharholder. Vermillion pays out $0.17 per month and is trading around the $40 mark.
Verenex will be very volatile until they actually start production and can publish accurate reserve calculations. Please conduct your own due dilligence.
Verenex issued their third quarter results. They spudded their seventh well in Libya. However, they don't expect cash flow from their Libyan discoveries until late 2009.
Haywood Securities maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $19.00.
This is one of two "none income" producing holdings at this time. A safer way to play Verenex is by holding Vermillion Energy Trust (VET.UN:TSX) which is Verenex's largest sharholder. Vermillion pays out $0.17 per month and is trading around the $40 mark.
Verenex will be very volatile until they actually start production and can publish accurate reserve calculations. Please conduct your own due dilligence.
SDT.UN Lost 3.3% of Net Asset Value for Existing Unit Holders
SDT.UN reported their Net Asset Value (NAV) as of November 1, 2007 as $5.06 per unit. The NAV on October 25, 2007 was $5.23 per Unit. This represents a dilution of $0.17 or 3.3% to the existing unit holders as result of the share exchange offer they recently completed.
This is unfair and shows that management cares more about itself then unit holders.
As I said in my last post, all the benefits of professional management are accruing to the manager and not the investor.
SDT.UN is now trading at a 10% discount to Net Asset Value which is the normal range since the October 31, 2006 Income Trust melt down caused by the new Government of Canada 31.5% tax on Trusts. This explains their recent weakness.
I plan on slowly unloading my units in SDT.UN and develop my own diversified holdings. I may not do as well as Sandy McIntyre but I will probably beat him on a total return basis due to Sentry Select's disregard for its unit holders.
SDT.UN is no longer one of my top picks. Keep watching the BLOG as I will update my Top Picks selection shortly.
This is unfair and shows that management cares more about itself then unit holders.
As I said in my last post, all the benefits of professional management are accruing to the manager and not the investor.
SDT.UN is now trading at a 10% discount to Net Asset Value which is the normal range since the October 31, 2006 Income Trust melt down caused by the new Government of Canada 31.5% tax on Trusts. This explains their recent weakness.
I plan on slowly unloading my units in SDT.UN and develop my own diversified holdings. I may not do as well as Sandy McIntyre but I will probably beat him on a total return basis due to Sentry Select's disregard for its unit holders.
SDT.UN is no longer one of my top picks. Keep watching the BLOG as I will update my Top Picks selection shortly.
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